Picking Pairs with Spread Charts

A practical step-by-step guide to using the Spread History chart to find the best trading pairs, read price behavior, and avoid common pitfalls.

Last updated: May 2026

The Two Charts Explained

When you click on a signal, the Spread History window opens with two charts. The top chart shows the actual prices of the asset on both exchanges — one line per exchange. This lets you see how prices move in real time and how closely the two exchanges track each other.

The bottom chart is the most important one — it shows the spread: the percentage difference between prices on the two exchanges. The shaded area represents the spread magnitude — the taller the area, the wider the price gap between exchanges. When the spread is above zero, Exchange B is more expensive; below zero, Exchange A is more expensive. The wider the area, the bigger the potential profit.

Hover over the top chart to see the exact prices on both exchanges and the spread at any point in time. This tooltip updates as you move your cursor, so you can explore the full history and understand how the spread was behaving at any moment.

What Makes a Good Pair

A good trading pair has three properties you can see on the chart. First, the spread should oscillate — it regularly goes up and comes back down (or vice versa). This "breathing" pattern means the system can open a position when the spread is wide and close it when the spread narrows, capturing the difference as profit.

Second, the oscillations should be large enough to cover fees. Every trade costs approximately 0.04–0.05% in taker fees, and you make four trades per cycle (buy + sell on each exchange). That means a full cycle costs about 0.20% in fees. The spread must swing by more than 0.20% for the trade to be profitable.

Third, the oscillations should be frequent. A spread that swings 2% once per week is less useful than one that swings 0.5% ten times per day. More cycles = more profit over time. Look at the bottom chart: if you see many up-and-down waves within the visible timeframe, that is a strong sign.

Beware of pseudo-pairs where the spread looks profitable on the chart but is structurally unreliable. When learning how to find arbitrage pairs crypto traders should always confirm that both legs are the same instrument type — a linear USDT-margined perp on one exchange and an inverse coin-margined contract on the other will show a phantom 0.3–0.5% gap that never closes, because the two contracts price differently by design. Different tick sizes or contract multipliers create the same illusion: if one venue quotes in $0.0001 ticks and the other in $0.01 ticks, the rounding noise alone can fake a tradable spread on low-priced coins. Solid crypto futures spread analysis means cross-checking contract specifications, settlement currency, and tick size before committing capital. A tradable crypto pair has matching contract mechanics on both legs — otherwise the spread is an artifact, not an opportunity.

Reading Chart Details

On the spread chart, colored markers appear at points where the spread crosses zero — indicating a direction change. Green markers show where the spread turned positive (Exchange B became more expensive), and red markers show where it turned negative. These help you quickly spot how often the spread flips direction.

When backtest results are active, two horizontal dashed lines appear on the spread chart: a green line for the recommended open threshold and a red line for the close threshold. These help you visualize where trades would have been entered and exited based on historical data.

Hover over the price chart to see the exact prices on both exchanges and the current spread at any point in time. Use the time range to zoom in on recent activity or zoom out to see longer-term patterns. You can also drag the divider between the two charts to resize them.

Using the Backtest Panel

At the bottom of the chart window, you will see a panel with numbers: Open, Close, Cycles, Win Rate, and Est. Profit. This is the backtest — the system automatically analyzed the loaded spread history and found the best thresholds for opening and closing positions.

"Open" (green dashed line on the chart) is the spread level at which you should enter a trade. "Close" (red dashed line) is the level at which you should exit. "Cycles" is how many times this pattern occurred in the loaded history. "Win Rate" shows what percentage of those cycles were profitable. "Est. Profit" is the total profit across all cycles, after subtracting fees.

Use these numbers as a starting point when setting up a Trading Card. A pair with 10+ cycles, 80%+ win rate, and positive Est. Profit is a strong candidate. But remember: backtest results are based on past data — they show what would have happened, not what will happen. Always start with small position sizes.

Red Flags to Avoid

Not every spread with a high percentage is a good trade. If the top chart shows a massive price gap that keeps growing without coming back (the lines diverge and never converge), this is usually a sign of a permanent price shift — such as a token delisting, a chain migration, or a major event. The spread will not close, and you will be stuck in a losing position.

Watch out for pairs where the spread is always on one side (always positive or always negative) and never crosses zero. This can indicate structural differences between exchanges — different contract specifications, liquidity imbalances, or persistent funding rate gaps. These are harder to trade and can lead to unexpected losses.

Also be cautious with very low-volume coins. The chart may show beautiful spread patterns, but if there is not enough liquidity on the order book, your market orders will suffer slippage — you will get a worse price than expected, and the actual spread will be smaller than what the chart shows.

A subtle but costly red flag is a funding interval mismatch between the two legs. If Exchange A settles funding every 1 hour and Exchange B settles every 8 hours, the perpetual futures spread can carry a synthetic offset of 0.1–0.3% that looks like clean alpha on the chart but collapses the moment one of the legs hits its funding settlement. The spread "breathes" around the settlement clock rather than around real price dislocation, producing a false arbitrage signal — your backtest will show beautiful cycles that vanish in live trading because the entry threshold was crossed by an accounting event, not by a genuine inefficiency. Before trusting a pair, open both exchange pages and confirm funding cadence matches (both 1h, both 4h, or both 8h). Mixed-cadence pairs are technically tradable, but the strategy must explicitly model the offset.

Step-by-Step: From Chart to Trading Card

There are two main ways to create a trading card from a signal. Choose based on how much control you need.

Quick Start is the fastest path. Press the Run button on any signal card — it instantly creates a ready-to-run trading card with sensible defaults: minimum order size, close spread at 30% of the open spread, and maximum available leverage.

① Find a signal with a spread above 0.3%.

② Press Run — a trading card is created automatically.

③ Review the card, then press Run to start trading.

The analytical path gives you more confidence. Open the chart first, review the backtest, and create a card with pre-filled thresholds.

④ Click Spread History on the signal card to open the chart.

⑤ Check the bottom chart: does the spread oscillate? Are the swings large and frequent?

⑥ Review the backtest panel — look for 5+ cycles with positive profit and high win rate.

⑦ Select the recommended mode (Long / Short / Both) and press Run — a trading card is created with backtest values pre-filled. Review order size and leverage, then start trading.

You can also create a card manually from the Dashboard by pressing the + button. This gives you full control — you choose the symbol, exchanges, and configure every parameter yourself: open/close thresholds, order size, leverage, delays, and risk limits. Use this when you have a specific strategy in mind.

Whichever path you choose, start with a small order size to validate the pair in real conditions. Monitor for a few hours, then gradually increase the size once you gain confidence.

Frequently asked questions

How do you find profitable arbitrage pairs in crypto?

Open the Spread History chart for any signal and check three things on the bottom panel: the spread should oscillate up and down, the swings should exceed 0.20% (round-trip taker fees), and oscillations should happen frequently — many small cycles beat one rare big move. Confirm with the backtest panel: 10+ cycles, 80%+ win rate, and positive estimated profit indicate a tradable crypto pair worth a small initial position.

What is a spread chart in crypto trading?

A spread chart visualises the percentage price difference between the same asset on two exchanges over time. In Arbitron, the top chart plots both exchange prices as separate lines, while the bottom chart shows the spread as a shaded area — positive when Exchange B is more expensive, negative when Exchange A is. It is the primary tool for crypto futures spread analysis and the basis for every entry and exit decision.

How wide should a crypto arbitrage spread be to be profitable?

A full two-leg cycle involves four market orders, each costing roughly 0.04–0.05% in taker fees, for a round-trip cost near 0.20%. The spread must therefore swing by more than 0.20% to break even — Arbitron's Quick Start defaults target signals at 0.3% or wider so there is a real margin above fees. Tighter spreads can work only if you have maker-fee rebates or VIP discounts on both venues.

What does the backtest panel show?

The backtest panel at the bottom of the Spread History window shows the optimal Open and Close thresholds the system found in the loaded history, plus Cycles (how many times the pattern completed), Win Rate (share of profitable cycles), and Est. Profit net of fees. The green and red dashed lines on the chart visualise those thresholds so you can see exactly where trades would have entered and exited.

Why do some crypto spreads never close?

A spread that diverges and never returns to zero usually reflects a permanent structural break — a token delisting on one venue, a chain migration, an inverse-vs-linear contract mismatch, or a persistent funding-rate gap. Entering such a pair traps you in a losing position because the mean-reversion assumption no longer holds. If the top chart shows two lines drifting apart without converging, skip the signal regardless of how wide the spread looks.

Should I trade arbitrage on low-volume coins?

Generally no. Low-volume coins often display beautiful-looking spread oscillations on the chart, but thin order books mean market orders eat through several price levels, and the realised spread shrinks far below the displayed one. If 24h volume is under a few million USDT or the order book is shallow at your target size, the chart is misleading — slippage will silently erase the edge that the backtest promised.

How do I read a perpetual futures spread chart?

Look at the bottom panel first: the shaded area is the spread in percent. Positive means Exchange B is more expensive than A, negative means the opposite. Green and red markers flag every zero-crossing — frequent crossings mean a healthy mean-reverting pair. Then check the top panel to confirm both price lines track each other closely, ruling out one-sided drift caused by delistings or contract-spec differences.

What is a good win rate for crypto arbitrage backtests?

Aim for 80% or higher across at least 10 completed cycles. Below 80%, losing cycles eat too much of the profit from winners; below 10 cycles, the sample is too small to trust. Combine win rate with Est. Profit — a 90% win rate over 3 cycles is weaker evidence than 82% over 40. And remember backtests show past behaviour only, so always validate with a small live position before scaling up.

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